📋 摘要
Keyrock 2025年12月8日市場分析顯示，宏觀環境傾向寬鬆政策，美國疲弱勞動數據支持聯準會鴿派立場，12月降息25基點機率升至93%。機構資金重返市場，加密貨幣ETF本週淨流入7.04億美元，連續兩週錄得正流入，其中比特幣、以太幣、Solana分別上漲6.4%、11%、7.9%。 以太坊Fusaka升級成功實施，PeerDAS技術使每個節點僅需存儲1/8的blob數據，將網路blob容量擴展至8倍，顯著提升L2交易效率並降低成本。區塊燃料限制從4500萬提升至6000萬，為2026年Glamsterdam升級奠定基礎。 鏈上活動呈現防禦性特徵，借貸利率混合波動，流動性向高品質平台集中。機構級資金持續流入主要資產，而其他板塊仍面臨去風險壓力。整體市場顯示晚期週期特徵，等待催化劑出現以推動下一波增長。
📄 完整內容
8 December 2025
Key Insights: When Doves Align
Macro Leans Toward Easing
Institutional Bid Returns
Onchain Muted but Resilient
Ethereum Scaling Advances
Stay up to date
telegram
Subscribe to Telegram
twitter
linkedin
youtube
email
Macro Leans Toward Easing
Every Monday, we deliver a concise yet comprehensive briefing to help you navigate the week ahead.
Our weekly market dashboard brings together key insights across Macro, Crypto, and Onchain activity, distilled into a clear, actionable format. Whether you’re managing risk or spotting opportunity, start the week informed and aligned.
Join our
Telegram Channel
to get it delivered directly to your phone.
Weak labor-market data defined the week and kept the dovish-Fed narrative firmly intact, even as Japanese 10Y yields broke to their highest level since 2007 and injected a note of caution back into global risk sentiment. BTC rose 4.5%, Gold lost a marginal -0.5%, and the NDX gained 1.0%, while the DXY slipped -0.4% as easing expectations continued to pressure the dollar.
Treasury action was modest but directionally consistent with markets leaning into Fed easing. The curve shifted slightly lower in the front end with 1M –15 bps, 6M –7 bps, while the long end cheapened marginally, leaving the 10Y +5 bps to 4.11%. The move came as US ADP Private Payrolls fell –32k in November (vs. +10k expected), reinforcing soft-landing dynamics and lifting odds of a December 25 bp cut to 93%. Markets also leaned into a more pro-liquidity Fed regime amid rising odds that Kevin Hassett replaces Powell next year (73%) , a shift investors view as further easing-biased.
Volatility drained across assets as markets stabilized. BTC 30D ATM IV fell -3.3% to 46, ETH IV dropped 3.2% to 69, and the VIX slid 10.08% to 15.4, putting carry modestly negative and pushing implieds back toward the lower end of recent ranges. Options positioning remains concentrated around the Dec 26 expiry, where call OI ($17b) meaningfully outweighs puts ($6b), creating a skew structure that reflects a market leaning long into year-end.
Our Take:
In the last few months, the main pressure on BTC has come from persistent outflows in US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Those outflows were largely driven by exhaustion in equity markets, which had rallied sharply since the April tariff-driven selloff but have faced renewed macro and valuation uncertainty. Several major banks, including Bank of America, are now working toward providing clients with access to crypto ETPs in 2026, and large asset managers are beginning to open their platforms as well, with Vanguard announcing this week that it will allow trading of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Taken together, the medium-to-long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive.
Institutional Bid Returns
Majors bounced across the board this week, with BTC, ETH and SOL up 6.4%, 11% and 7.9% respectively. BTC gained as the DAT and ETF bid returned following the orange coin’s very own ‘Black Friday’ low prices. MicroStrategy added another 130 BTC, Vanguard opened BTC ETF access to 50m clients, and BlackRock flagged sovereign buying. ETH outperformed as the Fusaka upgrade massively expanded block capacity. In line with BTC, ETH ETF flows picked up at $140m for the week, with BitMine reaching the milestone of having accumulated nearly 3% of supply. SOL rose 7.9% on continued ETF inflows, Revolut’s integration for payments and staking, a fresh ATH in USDC supply, and surging x402 agent activity.
Derivatives positioning remains constructive without showing signs of excess. BTC OI ended the week slightly lower, down 0.9% WoW, despite price strength, while ETH OI climbed 5.8%, indicating new risk-taking concentrated in ETH specifically. Funding rates stayed mildly positive across both assets, pointing to a measured long bias but far from the overheated conditions seen earlier this cycle.
Institutional flows extended its two week positive streak, gaining momentum after a month of outflows. Crypto ETPs saw $704m of net inflows, following $349m the prior week. By asset, BTC led with ~$376m, ETH added over $140m, and SOL ~$12m, marking the first time since early Q4 that institutional channels have been net buyers of majors for two consecutive weeks. The alignment between ETP flows, spot strength, and on-hain accumulation marks a notable sentiment shift.
Sector performance, however, remained highly uneven. Social tokens were the only category in the green, up 3.9% WoW, while Exchange tokens slipped 6.8%. The rest of the market saw broad de-risking.
Our Take: The market is clearly entering a phase where majors are absorbing the lion’s share of flows, supported almost entirely by institutional activity, while most sectors continue to capitulate. With leverage relatively restrained and ETP flows turning positive, we feel positive about the current set-up in majors, though down the risk continuum we will need to see flickers of life before gaining conviction.
Onchain Muted but Resilient
Onchain lending markets moved in wayward fashion this week, lacking a coherent sense of direction across majors. USDC and USDT supply APYs on Aave fell 4.7% and rose 17.2% WoW respectively, while WETH dropped 9.6%. The moves were almost entirely supply driven, as opposed to changes in demand for borrowing the assets. The broader rate environment still signals defensive positioning, with lenders preferring passive yield over directional risk-taking.
Chain netflows were mixed, with clearer dispersion than prior weeks. Polygon PoS led with a strong +$66m inflow, driven by continued stablecoin settlement growth and payments activity. Ethereum followed with +$54m, supported by post-upgrade flows and a mild recovery in ETF interest. On the other side, Hyperliquid saw $36m in outflows as unlock pressures hit, while Unichain and several mid-tier L2s bled liquidity amid rotation into more established ecosystems. The flows reflect a market searching for real catalysts, a state we have found ourselves in for a number of consecutive weeks now, favouring utility chains over speculative perps-driven venues.
RWA flows were broadly flat, with aggregate AUM down just 0.03% WoW. Maple led with a 6.4% gain as institutional credit demand continued recovering from recent distractions. Paxos also saw positive flows, while Securitize, down 8.3%, and Ondo, down 0.5%, experienced modest outflows tied to broader rotations within tokenized yield markets.
Our Take: Onchain markets continue to reflect late-cycle defensiveness with softer rates, selective liquidity rotation, and steady RWA resilience. With leverage largely flushed and capital consolidating into higher-quality venues, the market is positioning for catalysts rather than chasing noise. It’s a cleaner setup heading into the year-end than price action alone suggests, though without a catalyst, we anticipate sideways chop in price action and activity.
Ethereum Scaling Advances
Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade went live on Dec 4, marking a major step forward in the network’s scaling roadmap. The headline feature, PeerDAS, introduces a new data-handling model that removes the old requirement for every node to download and store all blob data. Instead, nodes only need to store a fraction of it. In practical terms, this is Ethereum’s first real move into danksharding to unlock far more data capacity at the base layer.
PeerDAS now enables Ethereum to scale blob capacity up to roughly 8×, because each node is responsible for storing only about 1/8 of total blob data. That opens the door to significantly higher throughput across the ecosystem as more blobs translate directly into lower L2 transaction costs, faster settlement, and more blockspace for builders.
The network also saw its default block gas limit increase from 45m to 60m. Our chart shows how validator gas-limit signaling evolved over recent weeks as the shift from blue (≤45M) to orange (≥60M) captures the growing share of validators reconfiguring their nodes to support the higher limit. Notably, this shift was already well underway even before Fusaka, and the adjustment was automatically applied on Nov. 25 once more than 50% of validators signaled approval, the threshold required under Ethereum’s current consensus rules.
Our Take: Ethereum’s next major milestone is the 2026 Glamsterdam upgrade (Gloas + Amsterdam), which aims to scale the network even further through larger blob capacity and more efficient execution. Ethereum is steadily scaling L1 to position itself as a high-throughput settlement layer capable of supporting institutional flows, real-world assets, and global financial rails, without sacrificing decentralization. Fusaka is a material proof point that Ethereum can scale meaningfully while preserving its core security guarantees, and Glamsterdam pushes that ambition even further.
Join our Telegram Channel to get it delivered directly to your phone.
Subscribe
Stay up to date
Get the latest industry insights, in-house research and Keyrock updates.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google
Privacy Policy
and
Terms of Service
apply.
Recommended
December 16, 2025
Prediction Markets, The Next Frontier of Financial Markets
September 25, 2025
Onchain Asset Management, Designing the Future of Investment Strategies
August 14, 2025
Stablecoin Payments, The Trillion Dollar Opportunity
Key Insights: When Doves Align
Macro Leans Toward Easing
Institutional Bid Returns
Onchain Muted but Resilient
Ethereum Scaling Advances
Stay up to date
telegram
Subscribe to Telegram
youtube
Macro Leans Toward Easing
Every Monday, we deliver a concise yet comprehensive briefing to help you navigate the week ahead.
Our weekly market dashboard brings together key insights across Macro, Crypto, and Onchain activity, distilled into a clear, actionable format. Whether you’re managing risk or spotting opportunity, start the week informed and aligned.
Join our
Telegram Channel
to get it delivered directly to your phone.
Weak labor-market data defined the week and kept the dovish-Fed narrative firmly intact, even as Japanese 10Y yields broke to their highest level since 2007 and injected a note of caution back into global risk sentiment. BTC rose 4.5%, Gold lost a marginal -0.5%, and the NDX gained 1.0%, while the DXY slipped -0.4% as easing expectations continued to pressure the dollar.
Treasury action was modest but directionally consistent with markets leaning into Fed easing. The curve shifted slightly lower in the front end with 1M –15 bps, 6M –7 bps, while the long end cheapened marginally, leaving the 10Y +5 bps to 4.11%. The move came as US ADP Private Payrolls fell –32k in November (vs. +10k expected), reinforcing soft-landing dynamics and lifting odds of a December 25 bp cut to 93%. Markets also leaned into a more pro-liquidity Fed regime amid rising odds that Kevin Hassett replaces Powell next year (73%) , a shift investors view as further easing-biased.
Volatility drained across assets as markets stabilized. BTC 30D ATM IV fell -3.3% to 46, ETH IV dropped 3.2% to 69, and the VIX slid 10.08% to 15.4, putting carry modestly negative and pushing implieds back toward the lower end of recent ranges. Options positioning remains concentrated around the Dec 26 expiry, where call OI ($17b) meaningfully outweighs puts ($6b), creating a skew structure that reflects a market leaning long into year-end.
Our Take:
In the last few months, the main pressure on BTC has come from persistent outflows in US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Those outflows were largely driven by exhaustion in equity markets, which had rallied sharply since the April tariff-driven selloff but have faced renewed macro and valuation uncertainty. Several major banks, including Bank of America, are now working toward providing clients with access to crypto ETPs in 2026, and large asset managers are beginning to open their platforms as well, with Vanguard announcing this week that it will allow trading of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Taken together, the medium-to-long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive.
Institutional Bid Returns
Majors bounced across the board this week, with BTC, ETH and SOL up 6.4%, 11% and 7.9% respectively. BTC gained as the DAT and ETF bid returned following the orange coin’s very own ‘Black Friday’ low prices. MicroStrategy added another 130 BTC, Vanguard opened BTC ETF access to 50m clients, and BlackRock flagged sovereign buying. ETH outperformed as the Fusaka upgrade massively expanded block capacity. In line with BTC, ETH ETF flows picked up at $140m for the week, with BitMine reaching the milestone of having accumulated nearly 3% of supply. SOL rose 7.9% on continued ETF inflows, Revolut’s integration for payments and staking, a fresh ATH in USDC supply, and surging x402 agent activity.
Derivatives positioning remains constructive without showing signs of excess. BTC OI ended the week slightly lower, down 0.9% WoW, despite price strength, while ETH OI climbed 5.8%, indicating new risk-taking concentrated in ETH specifically. Funding rates stayed mildly positive across both assets, pointing to a measured long bias but far from the overheated conditions seen earlier this cycle.
Institutional flows extended its two week positive streak, gaining momentum after a month of outflows. Crypto ETPs saw $704m of net inflows, following $349m the prior week. By asset, BTC led with ~$376m, ETH added over $140m, and SOL ~$12m, marking the first time since early Q4 that institutional channels have been net buyers of majors for two consecutive weeks. The alignment between ETP flows, spot strength, and on-hain accumulation marks a notable sentiment shift.
Sector performance, however, remained highly uneven. Social tokens were the only category in the green, up 3.9% WoW, while Exchange tokens slipped 6.8%. The rest of the market saw broad de-risking.
Our Take: The market is clearly entering a phase where majors are absorbing the lion’s share of flows, supported almost entirely by institutional activity, while most sectors continue to capitulate. With leverage relatively restrained and ETP flows turning positive, we feel positive about the current set-up in majors, though down the risk continuum we will need to see flickers of life before gaining conviction.
Onchain Muted but Resilient
Onchain lending markets moved in wayward fashion this week, lacking a coherent sense of direction across majors. USDC and USDT supply APYs on Aave fell 4.7% and rose 17.2% WoW respectively, while WETH dropped 9.6%. The moves were almost entirely supply driven, as opposed to changes in demand for borrowing the assets. The broader rate environment still signals defensive positioning, with lenders preferring passive yield over directional risk-taking.
Chain netflows were mixed, with clearer dispersion than prior weeks. Polygon PoS led with a strong +$66m inflow, driven by continued stablecoin settlement growth and payments activity. Ethereum followed with +$54m, supported by post-upgrade flows and a mild recovery in ETF interest. On the other side, Hyperliquid saw $36m in outflows as unlock pressures hit, while Unichain and several mid-tier L2s bled liquidity amid rotation into more established ecosystems. The flows reflect a market searching for real catalysts, a state we have found ourselves in for a number of consecutive weeks now, favouring utility chains over speculative perps-driven venues.
RWA flows were broadly flat, with aggregate AUM down just 0.03% WoW. Maple led with a 6.4% gain as institutional credit demand continued recovering from recent distractions. Paxos also saw positive flows, while Securitize, down 8.3%, and Ondo, down 0.5%, experienced modest outflows tied to broader rotations within tokenized yield markets.
Our Take: Onchain markets continue to reflect late-cycle defensiveness with softer rates, selective liquidity rotation, and steady RWA resilience. With leverage largely flushed and capital consolidating into higher-quality venues, the market is positioning for catalysts rather than chasing noise. It’s a cleaner setup heading into the year-end than price action alone suggests, though without a catalyst, we anticipate sideways chop in price action and activity.
Ethereum Scaling Advances
Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade went live on Dec 4, marking a major step forward in the network’s scaling roadmap. The headline feature, PeerDAS, introduces a new data-handling model that removes the old requirement for every node to download and store all blob data. Instead, nodes only need to store a fraction of it. In practical terms, this is Ethereum’s first real move into danksharding to unlock far more data capacity at the base layer.
PeerDAS now enables Ethereum to scale blob capacity up to roughly 8×, because each node is responsible for storing only about 1/8 of total blob data. That opens the door to significantly higher throughput across the ecosystem as more blobs translate directly into lower L2 transaction costs, faster settlement, and more blockspace for builders.
The network also saw its default block gas limit increase from 45m to 60m. Our chart shows how validator gas-limit signaling evolved over recent weeks as the shift from blue (≤45M) to orange (≥60M) captures the growing share of validators reconfiguring their nodes to support the higher limit. Notably, this shift was already well underway even before Fusaka, and the adjustment was automatically applied on Nov. 25 once more than 50% of validators signaled approval, the threshold required under Ethereum’s current consensus rules.
Our Take: Ethereum’s next major milestone is the 2026 Glamsterdam upgrade (Gloas + Amsterdam), which aims to scale the network even further through larger blob capacity and more efficient execution. Ethereum is steadily scaling L1 to position itself as a high-throughput settlement layer capable of supporting institutional flows, real-world assets, and global financial rails, without sacrificing decentralization. Fusaka is a material proof point that Ethereum can scale meaningfully while preserving its core security guarantees, and Glamsterdam pushes that ambition even further.
Join our Telegram Channel to get it delivered directly to your phone.
Subscribe
Stay up to date
Get the latest industry insights, in-house research and Keyrock updates.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google
Privacy Policy
and
Terms of Service
apply.
Recommended
December 16, 2025
Prediction Markets, The Next Frontier of Financial Markets
September 25, 2025
Onchain Asset Management, Designing the Future of Investment Strategies
August 14, 2025
Stablecoin Payments, The Trillion Dollar Opportunity
文檔 ID：
bbdcc139-c45f-4344-b2c7-f92f8d3c4534
向量 ID：
doc_bbdcc139-c45f-4344-b2c7-f92f8d3c4534
建立時間：
2025-12-29 16:26:31.029164
更新時間：
2025-12-29 16:26:31.029164